Sharp Decline in Employment Opportunities Index
ARA Research & Consultancy has released its Consumer Confidence Index in Kuwait for March 2024, in collaboration with Arab Times Newspaper and under the sponsorship of Lexus. Noting that the field research was conducted before the parliamentary elections.
What stands out in the research is the decline in 4 out of 6 indexes that make up the research topics. Notably, there has been a sharp decline in the Current Employment Opportunities Index, which dropped by 22 points within a month.
The General Index recorded 111 points, dropping by two points within a month. Despite this slight decline, the index level remains among the best in 15 months. The minor decline in the General Index appears to reflect current regional and international realities, as most studies indicate growth in Kuwait's economy and the solidity of financial and monetary conditions, among other positive factors, notably:
- A significant improvement in oil prices, which approached 90 USD per barrel, with expectations of further price increases during this year based on the anticipation of China's increasing oil import needs and improvements in the supply and demand law equation.
- Stock market gains and their further reflection across various economic sectors.
- With reference to the positive adherence to the economic policy in Kuwait concerning the continuation of investment projects, whether at the level of the oil sector or in other investment areas.
These positive data, among others, confirm that the slight decline in consumer confidence could be a result of the current phase that the region is going through, with multiple conflicts in Palestine, Lebanon, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf, as well as the political, economic, and security conflicts on a global scale.
These realities impose themselves on consumers in various parts of the world, including Kuwait.
Despite a two-point drop in the General Index, it has bolstered its balance by 12 points compared to March 2023.
Regionally, Al-Farwaniya Governorate added an extra 7 points to the General Index, while the Capital boosted the index by 2 points, whereas the other four governorates saw declines between 3 and 8 points. The index also decreased by 4 points among citizens, and the General Index rates dropped by 2 points among those with an intermediate education level and below, and by 14 points among those with secondary education level, and by 2 points among university degree holders.
Decline in Future Indexes
It seems that external negative factors are pressuring most countries in the world, especially the regional ones, as a logical reflection of the military and security conflicts in the area. Notably, the research data for March 2024 shows a decline in the respondents' confidence regarding future expectations. These negative tendencies have been mitigated, thanks to Kuwait's economic and financial conditions, which have contributed and continue to contribute to raising and/or stabilizing confidence in Kuwait.
Nevertheless, the study highlighted an unusual decline in confidence in matters related to future expectations, which appeared in the research figures, where 4 out of 6 indicators declined. The Expected Personal Income Index recorded 108 points, decreasing 4 points within a month. It is notable that 21 out of the 27 components of the research expressed dissatisfaction and discomfort with the future expectations.
This phenomenon is logical, yet it must be monitored.
Decline in the Economic Indexes Rates
Most of the time, Current and Expected Economic Indexes vary between positive and negative. However, in March, both the Current and Expected Economic Situation Indexes declined, where the former recorded 105 points, dropping by 3 points, and the Expected Economic Situation Index stood at 117 points, losing 5 points within a month. Despite this decline, both indexes have still advanced 12 points compared to March 2023.
It is noted that the confidence among those aged over 55 has declined, although this group is usually characterized by optimism. They recorded 102 points for the Current Economic Index, declining by 15 points within a month, and their Personal Income Index decreased by 36 points. However, this decline did not extend to confidence in the Expected Economic Situation Index, where they raised their index to 117 points, adding 18 points compared to February.
At the regional level, 5 governorates expressed their lack of confidence in the expected economic situation, whereby the ratio of Mubarak Al-Kabeer governorate declined by 57 points, the Capital by 13 points, Al-Jahra by 10 points, Hawalli by 3 points and Al-Ahmadi by 2 points. Al-Farwaniya was the only governorate that expressed optimism in the future economy and boosted its previous ratio by 8 points.
These examples of the research results indicate the level of concern infiltrating around the expected conditions in the future.
The Current Personal Income Index Surpasses Challenges
The Current Personal Income Index has enhanced its level, registering 100 points, adding seven points to its previous monthly rate, and one point compared to March 2023.
The satisfaction of survey respondents with the current income level reflects the reality. According to a statement by the Central Statistical Bureau addressing population and employment issues:
On September 30, 2023, the average income of a citizen working in the public sector amounted to 1,952 Kuwaiti dinars for males and 1,364 dinars for females, in addition to the financial grants and incentives provided to them.
These encouraging incomes confirm the results of the research and its data, and the satisfaction of the majority of the study's components, which expressed confidence in the current incomes.
Regionally, Mubarak Al-Kabeer Governorate increased its previous balance by 47 points within a month, Al-Farwaniya Governorate by 20 points, the Capital by 15 points, and Al-Ahmadi Governorate by 5 points, while Al-Jahra Governorate saw a decrease of 8 points and Hawalli Governorate by 6 points.
It is noted that there is a variance in the level of confidence among the educational components, whereby diploma holders added 20 points within a month, university graduates 12 points, and those with an intermediate education level and below 7 points, while the secondary education level category alone saw a decline of 27 points.
Decline in Current Employment Opportunities
The Current Employment Opportunities Index registered 129 points, decreasing by 22 points within a month, and with 23 out of 27 components showing negative sentiments regarding the Current Employment Opportunities. Possible reasons for this decline include:
A - Correction of this index, given its increase to 151 points in February, which was the highest level in years.
B - The decrease in real estate trading liquidity during February may have contributed to reducing demand for workforce.
C - Unfavorable regional and global conditions.
According to public data, by the end of 2023, the total workforce in Kuwait reached 3.005 million workers, which constitutes 61.8% of the population. The share of Kuwaiti employees in the public sector reached 80% and Kuwaiti females constituted 51% of the total national workforce.
The Holy Month of Ramadan Increased Consumption Levels
The Purchase of Durable Goods Index increased to 122 points, adding 11 points to its monthly balance. This expansion in consumption came to meet the needs of the holy month of Ramadan and to fulfill the requirements of religious and traditional customs during this occasion, despite the increase in prices of goods, merchandise, and foodstuffs prevalent in various countries around the world.
Regarding the reasons for price increases, they include:
- Many countries' failure to overcome the scourge of monetary inflation, which reduces the purchasing power of money to varying degrees.
- Military conflicts at the international or regional level, which lead to additional difficulties in the supply chains and increase the additional expenses and the transport and insurance costs, directly affecting the prices of all materials.
- Climate changes, such as storms, landslides, and sometimes drought, have led to a sharp decrease in agricultural production levels, affecting the balance between supply and demand and consequently the prices have multiplied, such as, the prices of coffee, cocoa, and meats.
Despite these conditions, the majority of the research components placed their trust in the consumption index, with 21 components out of 27 showing confidence.
The Capital boosted its index by 41 points, while Mubarak Al-Kabeer Governorate alone recorded a loss of 41 points within a month.
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