The ARA Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 5 points, with the General Index standing at 112 points at the end of September, its lowest level since March 2026. This followed an increase recorded in August. Five subindices declined, while only one increased, namely the Current Personal Income Index. The results for Kuwaitis and Arab residents reversed compared to the previous month. The General Index declined by 10 points among Kuwaitis reaching 109 points, while it increased by 1 point among Arab residents to reach 114 points. The index also decreased by 13 points among women, falling below the 100 point threshold to reach 99 points, while it increased by 2 points among men to reach 122 points.

This decline came amid a renewed escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran in early September, alongside an increase in attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which exceeded 90 since the beginning of the war. These included an attack on a tanker operated by Kuwait Oil Tanker Company while transiting the strait on September 28. Brent crude oil prices surged to approximately USD 113 per barrel on September 9, despite a relative improvement in tanker traffic through the strait during September. This suggests that security concerns outweighed the positive developments in consumer sentiment.

Confidence in the Current Economic Situation Continues to Decline, While Personal Income Improves Slightly

The Current Economic Situation Index declined by 2 points to 108 points at the end of September, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline and its lowest level since January 2026. Confidence among Kuwaitis decreased by 9 points to reach 103 points, while it increased by 3 points among Arab residents reaching106 points. Similarly, confidence among women fell by 11 points to 98 points, compared with an increase of 4 points among men to 116 points.

The Current Personal Income Index was the only index to increase this month, rising by 3 points for the second consecutive month to reach 100 points at the end of September, its highest level since June 2026. However, this increase was driven by Arab residents, among whom the index rose by 18 points to reach100 points, while it dropped  by 12 points among Kuwaitis to reach 99 points. The index also increased by 8 points among men reaching 111 points, while it declined by 3 points among women to 84 points.

Regarding the oil sector, data from the International Energy Agency indicate that Kuwait's crude oil production increased to 2.04 million barrels per day in August, although it remained below the targeted OPEC+ production quota of 2.66 million barrels per day. Crude oil exports from Gulf countries also exceeded pre-war levels on approximately half of the days in September. Meanwhile, the agency revised downward its forecast for global oil demand, projecting a decline of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, while at the same time more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf oil production remained suspended during August.

Decline in Confidence in the Future Economic Situation

The Expected Economic Situation Index declined by 7 points to reach 116 points at the end of September, its lowest level since March 2026, following an increase in the previous month that brought it to its highest level since April 2026. The index decreased by 9 points among Arab residents to 119 points and by 3 points among Kuwaitis to   111 points. It also fell by 14 points among women to 111 points, compared with a decrease of 2 points among men to 121 points. The 18–35 age group recorded the largest decline, at 17 points.

Similarly, the Expected Personal Income Index decreased by 3 points to reach 110 points at the end of September, returning to its July level. The index decreased by 5 points among Kuwaitis to reach 106 points and by 1 point among Arab residents to 113 points. It also decreased by 6 points among women to 105 points and by 1 point among men to 113 points.

Sharp Decline in the Employment Opportunities Index

The Current Employment Opportunities Index recorded the largest decrease among all indexes, falling by 24 points to 146 points at the end of September, its lowest level since March 2026, although it remained at relatively elevated levels. The index decreased by 33 points among Kuwaitis and by 10 points among Arab residents. Notably, the decline this month was concentrated among women, with the index decreasing by 51 points, reversing the increase recorded in August. In contrast the index remained almost unchanged among men, decreasing by just 1 point. The index also recorded a substantial decline of 64 points among the 18–35 age group.

ARA analysts stated, "The sharp fluctuations in women's and young people's perceptions of the labor market over the past two months reflect the sensitivity of these groups' to developments in security and economic conditions, highlighting the need for close monitoring of this index in the coming months."

Decline in Willingness to Purchase Durable Goods

The Purchase of Durable Goods Index declined by 9 points to 117 points at the end of September, its lowest level since March 2026, following an increase in the previous month. The index fell by 14 points among Kuwaitis to 121 points and by 2 points among Arab residents to 110 points. It also dropped by 17 points among women to reach 87 points, while it increased by 2 points among men reaching 138 points.