Optimism in Kuwait Despite the Wars

ARA Research & Consultancy released its Consumer Confidence Index for the State of Kuwait for February 2026, sponsored by Lexus.

Despite the tense regional and international climate, the ARA Consumer Confidence Index increased at the beginning of the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. The General Index recorded 112 points in February, increasing by 4 points within a month. ARA analysts point that this increase reflects consumers’ expectations that conditions will improve after the end of the war, as well as their confidence in Kuwait’s ability to deal with the repercussions associated with the war. Analysts note that the study was conducted between the 28^th of February and the 4^th of March, meaning during the first days of the war, when the prevailing belief was that it would end quickly.

The index increased by 6 points among citizens and by 3 points among Arab residents. It is notable that the index rose particularly among men, with an increase of 7 points, compared to 1 point among women. This reflects the difference in attitudes during wartime, as men tend to show greater enthusiasm while women tend to be more cautious.

Record Increase in the Current Economic Situation Index

The Current Economic Situation Index jumped to high levels, fully compensating for the losses it incurred in January and reaching a record high of 116 points in February; its highest level since September 2011. The largest increase was recorded among men, with a rise of 20 points, compared to 10 points among women. The index also increased by 18 points among citizens, compared to 14 points among Arab residents.

ARA analysts point out that Kuwait has the ability to store its oil production, unlike natural gas for example, which is difficult to store; thus, any day without production would represent lost revenue. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation also announced, through its Chief Executive Officer, that it has taken precautionary measures and prepared emergency plans to address potential supply line disruptions and ensure operational continuity. With the increase in oil prices, consumers feel that the current situation is not as dire as might be expected in such circumstances.

Authorities also continue to maintain and develop the oil sector’s infrastructure. A project involving four crude oil pipelines was launched at a cost of 447.31 million dinars to complete the development of the oil sector.

Personal Income Index Recovers Some of Its Losses

The Current Personal Income Index recorded 106 points, increasing by 8 points within the month of February and compensating for part of the losses it recorded in January. The index increased among citizens by 9 points and among Arab residents by 7 points. It also increased by 14 points among men while decreased by 10 points among women.

Several projects are currently under implementation, most notably in the oil sector and in the real estate and housing sectors; especially following the Real Estate Developer Law, which is expected to witness a boom after issuing the tenders and involving the private sector in providing housing for Kuwaiti citizens.

Employment Opportunities Index Regains its High Levels

In line with the improvement witnessed by the current situation indexes, the Current Employment Opportunities Index recorded 142 points, increasing by 22 points within a month and partially compensating for  the significant loss it recorded in the first month of the year. Improvement was recorded across most social groups, particularly among citizens with an increase of 28 points, compared to 13 points among Arab residents; and among women with an increase of 32 points, compared to 15 points among men. ARA analysts noted that the increase in the index was linked to income levels; higher incomes increased confidence in the availability of employment opportunities.

Stability in Future Indexes

In contrast to the current indexes (economic situation, personal income, and employment opportunities), the future indexes remained stable. The Expected Economic Situation Index recorded 115 points, decreasing by 1 point within the month of February. Results varied according to nationality and gender. The index increased by 5 points among citizens while decreased by 4 points among Arab residents. Similarly, it rose by 3 points among women, while declined by 4 points among men.

The Ministry of Finance also announced the draft budget for the 2026–2027 fiscal year, with revenues estimated at 16.313 billion dinars, based on an assumed oil price of USD 57 per barrel. This implies a projected deficit of approximately 9.8 billion dinars, noting that expenditures increased by about 2 billion dinars, representing an increase of 6.2% compared to the previous fiscal year budget.

In the same way, the Expected Personal Income Index maintained its level, increasing by 1 point to record 111 points at the end of February. The index rose by 3 points among citizens while declined by 2 points among Arab residents. Likewise, it increased by 3 points among women while decreased by 1 point among men.

Citizens showed greater improvement in confidence regarding future conditions with the beginning of the war, compared to Arab residents, who were less optimistic as they were also affected by the consequences of the war on their families in their home countries.

Sharp Decline in Durable Goods Purchases

There is no doubt that consumers tend to be hesitant to purchase durable goods during wartime. Thus, the Purchase of Durable Goods Index dropped by 25 points within the month of February, recording 79 points, which is its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The sudden war that affected most Arab countries, including the State of Kuwait, impacted consumers’ psychology and their willingness to buy, leading them to limit their purchases to essential goods and necessities.

The decline was particularly pronounced among Kuwaitis, with a decrease of 36 points compared to 14 points among Arab residents, and among women with a drop of 31 points compared to 17 points among men.

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