Leap in Citizens' Confidence to Reach Its Highest Levels at the End of 2023
ARA Research & Consultancy has released its Consumer Confidence Index in Kuwait for December 2023, in collaboration with Arab Times Newspaper and under the sponsorship of Lexus.
ARA’s General Index recorded its highest level since fourteen months at the end of 2023, reaching 113 points. In addition, all indicators increased significantly, especially the Purchase Index, the Employment Opportunities Index and the confidence indexes in the future, while the Current Economic Situation Index maintained its previous monthly level.
Thus, ARA General Index added 9 points in December, with an annual increase of 11 points compared to year 2022 closing.
This leap in the confidence of all consumers, which included Kuwaitis with a notable increase of 12 points within a month and Arab residents with an increase of 6 points, is contrary to the general situation in the region on both the international and geo-political levels, particularly regarding the war on Gaza, the escalating tensions in the Red Sea and the sharp decline in Suez Canal activities, along with the associated regional risks and economic impacts.
Undoubtedly, the confidence in the governance in Kuwait and its stability, particularly after His Highness the Emir Mishaal Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah assumed leadership following the death of the late Emir Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, positively affected the confidence of citizens in particular and residents in general, raising their level of contentment despite the difficult circumstances facing the region and boosting consumer confidence in Kuwait's future. It is noteworthy that the study was conducted before His Highness Sheikh Dr. Mohammad Sabah Al-Salem was appointed Prime Minister on January 4th.
More Confidence Among Respondents in Future Expectations
The Expected Economic Situation Index recorded its highest level ever, reaching 123 points, an increase of 11 points from November, and 15 points higher than year 2022 closing. The significant increase in the Expected Economic Situation Index was among citizens, reaching 123 points, 20 points higher than November, compared to an increase of only 3 points among Arab residents, confirming the impact of the internal factor over other regional situations.
Notably, 25 of the 27 demographic components of the study expressed improved confidence in the Expected Economic Situation, thus confirming the spread of confidence in future conditions at unprecedented proportions.
The Expected Economic Situation Index increased in all governorates, the highest being in Al-Jahra Governorate with an increase of 18 points, and the lowest in Al-Farwaniya Governorate with an increase of 4 points over its previous month balance.
Comprehensive Confidence in Future Expectations
The Expected Personal Income Index did not miss out on the positive confidence, registering 115 points at the end of the year, an increase of 8 points within a month, and an annual increase of 10 points.
It is rare for all demographic components to award their confidence and positive points to an index. This phenomenon confirms the presence of growth and recovery factors that supported the Expected Personal Income Index. It is worth mentioning that the end of the year usually marks an occasion for providing incentives and/or financial grants to employees, raising their salary levels and wages to varying degrees. Additionally, expectations of salary increases in the public sector early next year, and the necessary measures and decisions to include wage increases for employees in the private sector, albeit to varying degrees, also contributed to this positive confidence.
The Government Seeks to Address Unemployment Among Citizens
The Current Employment Opportunities Index increased by 20 points in December, registering 134 points, which is 9 points higher than year 2022 closing.
The highest increase was among Arab residents, up 26 points compared to a 16 point increase among citizens, and among university graduates (26 points increase) and those with intermediate education certificate and below (73 points increase) within a month. The recovery of the real estate sector may be one of the reasons for this increase. The successive governments are working in several directions, including:
- Reducing unemployment rates among citizens.
- Addressing the decline in the number of citizens working in the private sector, which decreased to 52,000.
- Increasing the number of citizens working in the public sector and reducing the number of expatriate workers.
- Continuing to encourage the establishment of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Purchasing Index at Its Highest Levels
ARA index for the Purchase of Durable Goods increased to its highest level since September 2022, registering 116 points, an increase of 20 points in December, and closing 2023 with 12 points increase within a year. The increase included most demographics, especially among youth aged 18-35 (20 points increase), citizens (23 points increase), and Arab residents (17 points increase). All governorates witnessed improvement, except Mubarak Al-Kabeer Governorate, where the index decreased by 32 points in December, while Al-Jahra Governorate increased its index by 51 points and the other governorates between 23 and 6 points.
There is no doubt that end of the year is usually a time for renewing possessions and encourages spending, but this surge in purchase intention has persisted since the post-COVID-19 pandemic period, as exemplified by:
A- Credit card debts in Kuwait reached about 3 billion dinars during the first nine months of 2023, an increase of 17.6%.
B- Kuwaitis' spending on travel increased by 12% during 2023, amounting to 3.53 billion dinars approximately during the first nine months of the year.
Confidence in Personal Income Stabilizes
The Current Personal Income Index increased by 11 points in December, registering 102 points at the end of the year, an increase of 15 points from year 2022 closing.
Notably, income ratios increased in all governorates, ranging from a maximum of 20 points to a minimum of 7 points, except in Mubarak Al-Kabeer Governorate, where the Personal Income Index saw a sharp decline of 48 points within a month.
The index also decreased among those with a good income (between 1850 and 2249 dinars), recording 42 points with an unprecedented loss of 49 points within a month.
The Current Economic Situation Index Remains Stable
The Current Economic Situation Index was the only index to maintain stability at 102 points at the end of December, without any increase or decrease, closing the year with an 8-point increase from year 2022 closing.
Despite the negative external climate in the volatile region, the Economic Situation Index maintained its good level, bolstered by several factors, including fluctuating oil prices within high margins, the Central Bank of Kuwait maintaining stable interest rates, and controlling monetary inflation level at around 3.6%, which contributed to the recovery of economic sectors, especially the real estate sector, which affects positively the activity of several other sectors.
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